The Study on Road Accidents Forecasting Model Based on Multi-level Recursive Method
نویسندگان
چکیده
In view of the characteristic that the traffic system is a dynamic and time-varying parameter system, the multi-level recursive forecasting method is proposed, and the multi-level recursive forecasting model of road accidents is established in this thesis. In this method, the forecasting of road accidents is divided into two parts: the forecasting of time-varying parameters and the future forecasting of road accidents based on the forecasting of time-varying parameters. By the precise forecasting of time-varying parameter, forecasting of road accidents is carried out .Forecasting results indicate the multi-level recursive forecasting model is suitable for the forecasting of road accidents and can improve the forecasting precision. Keywords—road traffic, accident, multi-level recursive, time-varying parameter , forecasting
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